World Economic Forum 2025

Borge Brende: Where do you see the Middle East in a year, when you come back to Davos?

Secretary-General: Well, I know it will be deeply reshaped, but I do not know exactly in what direction. All the different aspects will be reshaped.

First, Gaza.  I think it's important, first of all, to recognize that the ceasefire in Gaza is the product of the work of many - and I would praise the United States, Qatar and Türkiye for their efforts, for months and months and months to obtain the release of hostages - that by the way should be immediate and unconditional - and also to obtain the cease fire, but the negotiations were dragging, dragging, dragging.

And then, all of a sudden, it happened.

I think there was a large contribution of robust diplomacy of, at the time, the President-elect of the United States. I feel that when we had the position of Israel, still reluctant to the ceasefire just two days before it happened, and then all of a sudden, there was an acceptance.  I think that we have witnessed an example of robust diplomacy and that is something that we must recognize.

Borge Brende: You expect more robust diplomacy?

Secretary-General: I think you will have more examples of robust diplomacy. Let’s see now in what direction.

But what is not yet clear is what is the future of the relationship between Israelis and Palestinians. One possibility is to move into annexation of the West Bank, probably a kind of limbo situation in Gaza, which of course, is against international law and would mean that there will never be peace in the Middle East. The other possibility is to be still on time with a revitalized Palestinian Authority and an open approach by the Israeli Government to still be able to look into a two-state solution. It's not yet clear how things will develop.

In Lebanon, I believe that the ceasefire is holding, and my hope is that we will witness a Lebanon that will be able to finally have an effective government.  And we know the Lebanese - if the war ends at noon, at 1 o’clock they start to build. So, the Lebanese people have an enormous potential. So, I am optimistic about that.

But we still do not yet have the guarantee that this ceasefire will hold and will lead to a final peace.

I think Syria is the big question now. We have a new government that is saying all the right things, but at the same time, it's a government that still corresponds only to what we had in Idlib, and organizations that have a tradition that is not exactly the members of the choir of a church, and so there are many questions. and we see some signals that the openness and tolerance that is said, really will translate itself into reality.

So, we hopefully will have a Syria with a government that represents all the communities in Syria, which means that the problem between Türkiye and the Kurds will also be solved, and that allows for full integration of Syria into the international community, but we still have a strong risk of fragmentation and the strong risk of extremism in, at least, parts of the Syrian territory.

So, Syria is still a question mark, but it is in the interest of us all to engage in order to make things move in the direction of an inclusive form of governance in Syria, in which all minorities will feel represented.

And I think some gesture must be made, namely in relation to the sanctions, in order to help to make it possible.
 

Borge Brende: Incentivize?

Secretary-General: I think it's a quid pro quo, but I believe the first step now must see to create some relief in the sanctions system that is causing a lot of suffering in Syria.

Borge Brende: And we have already seen 200,000 Syrians coming back to Syria, but we also, as you said, SG, is a lot at stake because we've seen it in the past that, walking the talk has not necessarily been happening and it's really a lot at stake now with inclusiveness - you have the Kurds, you have the Alawites, you have Christians, you have Shiites. So, it's complex.

Secretary-General: As I said, we might have a good solution in which all feel represented and the contradictions are overcome, or a fragmentation with ruling parts of the territory. Let's hope that it's the first option that wins.

And then you have the most relevant question, which is Iran and relations with Iran, Israel and the United States. And here, my hope is that the Iranians understand that it is important to once and for all make it clear that they will renounce to have nuclear weapons, at the same time that they engage constructively with the other countries of the region to have a new security architecture in the region with full respect for independence, territorial integrity, non-interference, in the region, and with that having so-called [ inaudible] that allows them to be fully integrated in the global economy. This is my hope, but it's still possible that things do not go in this direction, and that we might have an escalation and an escalation that could be a dramatic confrontation engulfing the whole region.

Borge Brende: And that wouldn't only affect the Gulf region or the Middle East, that would have huge global impact. But you mentioned robust diplomacy related to Gaza. We also heard that President Trump has said that he wants peace and stability. That was the readout from the conversation he also had with Xi Jinping on Saturday, and we were very close to a full-fledged war between Israel and Iran in the Fall. So, I guess also on the Israeli side they will need to work very closely with the new administration on their approach to Iran. And there is also different camps in the Republican party when it comes to how to deal with Iran.

Secretary-General: But my feeling is that the first step now must come from Iran. Because if not we risk having an escalation. And I hope that Iran understands that it is useful to have this first step, and that it doesn’t make sense at all to bet on the possibility [inaudible] or a reality or the perception that Iran is aiming at having nuclear weapons. I think to make it clear once and for all that that will not happen. and to engage, as I said, constructively for a new security architecture in the region, respecting the independence of all the other countries would be a step that would allow the full integration of Iran in the global economy and would, I hope, once and for all to pacify this which is one of the most, I would say, serious risks in global peace and security.

Borge Brende: And coming back to Gaza, the implementation of the first phase is happening now. But there is also a second phase. There are still things that have modalities that have to be negotiated. But when you look at risks also, we see apparently a deterioration of the situation in the West Bank. So, of course the PA is also seen to play a role in the next phase of the implementation of Gaza. So it, of course, will be interesting also to see this new administration's view on the two-state solution. The Abraham accords, Saudi Arabia having said that there is no adjoining of the Abraham accords without a path towards the two-state solution. But the immediate challenge is now really on the West Bank, because we have seen a real deterioration of the security situation there. And then the path for reconstruction of Gaza.

Secretary-General: I think there is a win-win solution.  That win-win solution is that the ceasefire holds, and the hostages go on being released, and the massive distribution of aid takes place. First day 640 trucks, second day 930 trucks. It was proven that when restrictions disappeared aid is provided, as we've always said, and this is important; it is a success story. Now this success story must translate itself into a success story in the next phases. And the next phase is leading to a situation of permanent ceasefire in Gaza and a situation in which a transition can be established in Gaza, allowing for the reunification of the occupied Palestinian territories and allowing for a serious negotiation of a political solution based on the two states.

This is the win-win situation.  But there is another possibility, and the other possibility is for Israel, feeling emboldened by the military successes that it has had, to think that this is the moment to do the annexation of the West Bank, and to keep Gaza in a kind of a limbo situation, with an unclear form of governance.  It is clear for me that Israel is not fundamentally interested in Gaza, it is fundamentally interested in the West Bank.

Now, that would be a total violation of international law, and that would create a situation which I think the Abraham accords would be undermined completely and that would mean that we would never have a real, stable peace in the Middle East.

Borge Brende: So, one of the challenges, Secretary-General, we're faced with is in the more fragmented, polarized world, is also this notion of proxy wars. I'm thinking about what we're seeing now in Africa, in Sudan, Somalia, also in the Sahel. I guess that this is something that keeps you up at night. It's hard to address. It's hard to attribute, but also for Syria, this is probably one of the real impasses. Also there, if we don't have an integration, because then you can have a war going on for decades.

Secretary-General: Well, we live in a situation where the geopolitical divides are deep. The superpowers are deeply divided, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine of course the most serious problem, but with the China-US relationship being, as you know, very deteriorated and we could have worse with the trade issues that appeared on the horizon. So, these huge geopolitical divides have created a situation in which there is total impunity. As the superpowers are not able to coordinate their action in relation to global peace and security, the truth is that in any part of the world, anyone feels that they can do whatever they want, nothing will happen to them. And we are seeing this in the Sudan, no, I mean, two groups killing each other, fighting each other, creating a horrible situation for the people in Sudan. Nothing happens to them. Total impunity.

Now, this is the situation that I believe we need to correct. Because this is what makes these wars by proxy happen, and you see that in each of the situations - we have four or five countries that interfere with the conflict. Be it in Libya, be it in Sudan, be it in the Sahel.

Borge Brende: Somalia? We have the president here in the front row.

Secretary-General: I mean it is absolutely essential to, independently of the geopolitical divides that exist, create a situation in which there is real accountability in relation to the dramatic violations of human rights and international humanitarian law, we are seeing.

Borge Brende: So, coming to a close, it's a paradox though, isn't it that, in a world where more and more of the challenges are transboundary, being future pandemics, climate change, as you mentioned also in your speech, making sure that technology works in the interest of humankind.  Also, with cybercrime, but also in all these original conflicts that are so interconnected, we do have the Security Council.  Of course, there is criticism that it is not the best mood in the Security Council, but it is a place where the big powers still meet and it's a paradox that in a situation where all these challenges are only sold in a multilateral context, the appetite is not always there. So, it first makes your job even more complex, but do you feel there are a few opportunities and silver linings now in the coming years to, even in the world where each nation follow mainly their national interests, there are areas where there is so strong overlap of interests that you can push things through?

Secretary-General: Well, first of all, let's look at the Security Council.

The problem in the Security Council is a problem of effectiveness, but there is also a problem of legitimacy.

In the Security Council, of the five permanent members there are three European members - where, like it or not, France, the UK and Russia are European countries.  Now, three in five of the continent, that is what it is, doesn't make any sense anymore.

So, it is absolutely essential to have a reform of the Security Council, to make the Security Council more representative of today's world, and to make it more effective. This was one of the  central questions of the debate in the Summit of the Future.

But beyond that, what I believe is that there are things that will tend, in my opinion, to unite. And I have a lot of hope of the positive impacts of science and the positive impacts of, I would say, the technological development.

We can have different positions, but renewables became the cheapest way to produce electricity, and so, independently of the opinions that people might have, those that are now invested in fossil fuels, in my opinion are invested in obsolescence. I'm totally convinced that the oil and gas that exist in the world today, independently of new discoveries, would never be spent. And so, sooner or later, I believe that the realities created by the scientific and technological evolution, will make it inevitable, even for reasons of selfish analysis, would make it inevitable for people to take the right decisions. And that is one of my hopes.

The second hope is that the youth of today has a different perspective and a different vision of the world than the youth of our generations. They are more cosmopolitan, and they are more sensitive to the questions that are related to the wellbeing of our planet and wellbeing of the international community.

Borge Brende: So, there are silver linings?

Secretary-General: I think that the question is not to be optimistic or pessimistic.  The question is to be determined. We need to be determined in making the values and principles in which we believe win.   And if we are determined to fight for the right thing, if we are on the right side of history, I believe in the end we will get what we want.

Borge Brende: Thank you so much, Mr. Secretary-General. Great discussion.

Secretary-General: Thank you.

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