Geopolitical tensions are fragmenting global trade

It is a pleasure to join you, and I thank the Government and people of Barbados for their generous hospitality.

Today, global trade is fraught with challenges and uncertainties – threatening decades of progress.

Last year, trade volume fell more than 1 percent.

Compare that to an average growth rate of 2.5 percent since 2010.

Meanwhile, we witnessed a staggering surge in trade restrictions, with approximately 3,000 measures imposed. That is almost three times the level of 2019.

Geopolitical tensions are fragmenting global trade. Since the war in Ukraine began, trade between rival blocs has lagged – growing up to six percent slower than trade within blocs themselves.

If these trends continue unabated, decades of economic convergence and shared prosperity could rapidly unravel with dire consequences.

In this context, global supply chains emerge as a new source of vulnerability.

The COVID-19 pandemic was the first wake-up call – exposing the fragility of our intricate networks, and the cascading effects of disruptions.

More recently, we have witnessed conflict and climate change devastate critical trade routes.

Turmoil in Ukraine and Yemen has disrupted vital shipping lanes.

The unprecedented drought in the Panama Canal has forced authorities to restrict maritime traffic.

The ripple effects of these disruptions have been staggering - significant delays, increased costs, and economic uncertainty.

In the face of these challenges, a strong and coordinated response is paramount.

First, we must resist the temptation of pursuing isolationist policies, as we witnessed during the pandemic.

Instead, we must embrace multilateralism – recognizing that our fates are intertwined, and that no nation can thrive in isolation.

This Global Supply Chain Forum is a testament to our collective determination to address these challenges head-on.

It is a platform for dialogue, collaboration, and collective action; bringing together stakeholders from every corner of the globe to confront challenges and explore solutions.

Second, one of the key themes of this forum is the regional response to supply chain disruptions. 

The impact of these disruptions can vary significantly across regions.

We must tailor our strategies to mitigate the effects of these disruptions and foster resilience.

Policy measures to prioritize diversification, improve logistics, and strengthen collaboration can help address challenges and ensure sustainable growth for every region.

Third, we must address the unique challenges faced by Small Island Developing States.

Their geographical isolation, dispersed populations, and reliance on external markets render them particularly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.

For example, seventeen SIDS are among the thirty economies least connected to liner shipping.

Although rising container shipping costs increase consumer prices worldwide, the impact on SIDS is five times greater than the global average.

This forum presents an opportunity to address these challenges, and develop pragmatic approaches to sustainable development and resilient transport for SIDS.

Solidarity and cooperation have defined UNCTAD's six-decade journey.

Let us embrace that spirit today.

This forum marks a pivotal moment, as we chart a new path forward – one that is inclusive, sustainable, and resilient in the face of change.

The discussions and outcomes of this meeting will accelerate our progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, and shape UNCTAD’s agenda.

Let’s make the most of this chance.

Let’s use this forum to help forge a brighter future. A future, where no nation is left behind. A future where global trade remains a powerful force for economic growth, prosperity, and sustainable development.

Thank you.

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